The Netherlands now buys more of its energy from abroad. For small firms, the pressure lands through bills, grid access, tax and financing.
A bakery owner does not start the morning with a dependency chart. She starts with ovens, refrigeration, staff hours and the delivery round. If she is disciplined, she also opens the margin sheet. Flour has moved. Wages have moved. Rent has moved. Energy now belongs in the same daily review.
The signal has to become readable
On 29 June 2026, CBS reported that the Netherlands was 77 percent dependent on foreign countries for energy in 2025, up from 70 percent in 2015. The United States became the largest country of origin, rising from 3.1 percent of Dutch energy supply in 2015 to 24.4 percent in 2025. Russian-origin energy fell from 20.7 percent in 2021 to 2.7 percent in 2025.
From Groningen comfort to imported discipline
For decades, Dutch business lived with domestic gas as the background assumption. That era is gone. Rijksoverheid states that the closure law for the Groningen field entered into force on 19 April 2024 and that gas extraction from the field definitively ended. CBS links the higher foreign dependence to the long decline and end of Groningen production.
Renewables are growing, but they do not erase the rest of the system. CBS reported that renewable sources made up 22.7 percent of Dutch gross final energy consumption in 2025, up from 20.2 percent in 2024. Renewable consumption reached 401 petajoules. Buildings reached a 32 percent renewable share in energy use, while industry stood at 8 percent.
Electricity is also changing fast. Dutch electricity production reached 132 billion kWh in 2025. Renewable sources accounted for 49 percent of production. Fossil electricity still accounted for 48 percent and rose again after years of decline.
That leaves a mixed system. Oil, LNG, pipeline gas, storage, taxes, electricity exports and grid limits all touch the bill. The flag on the tanker is rarely visible in a shop or workshop. The effect arrives later, in the numbers that close the month.
The invoice is where the market speaks
In 2025, CBS said Dutch energy use was 37 percent dependent on oil from abroad. Oil from the United States accounted for 8.2 percent of total Dutch energy supply. Gas from the United States accounted for 13.2 percent, and that flow was entirely LNG transported by ship. Norwegian gas, at 7.1 percent, was mainly pipeline gas.
What the signal changes
Those routes matter. LNG is not only gas. It is shipping, terminals, storage, timing and global demand. A café owner may never negotiate a cargo contract, but she still pays inside that system. A plumber with three vans feels oil exposure through fuel and parts. A food producer feels it through refrigeration, packaging and delivery surcharges.
Belastingdienst also shows why an energy bill is never one simple price. For 2026, the normal energy tax rate for natural gas in the first two brackets is €0.60066 per cubic metre. The normal rate for electricity up to 10,000 kWh is €0.09161 per kWh. The tax reduction is €519.80 per qualifying electricity connection with an occupancy function.
That is why energy belongs in the control file, not only in the utility account. A founder who watches the monthly total may miss the real movement. Supply price, tax, grid charges, fixed fees, VAT, landlord recharges and variable contract clauses should stay visible on separate lines.
Capacity is becoming a business condition
Access is the next pressure point. Rijksoverheid says that from 1 July 2026, applications for a new or heavier electricity connection in congested areas will be assessed differently. Priority is limited to grid-relief solutions, organisations needed for national security and basic needs such as housing, schools and public transport.
For a small firm planning induction cooking, more refrigeration, heat pumps, charging points or new machinery, that is not abstract grid policy. It can decide whether the plan works at that site. A lease that looks affordable on paper can turn expensive once the connection, the service charge and the grid area enter the picture.
The government has also chosen a market-wide capacity mechanism to reduce future electricity shortage and price-peak risks. The first auctions are hoped for in 2028, for electricity security in 2029 and 2030. The costs will be charged to end users through tariffs.
What founders should check
Back at the bakery, the calculation changes quickly. Another oven, longer opening hours or an electrified process now depends on more than payback alone. The connection must carry the load. Peak hours can hurt. The lease may leave little control over service charges. The selling price may not absorb the extra risk.
Credit, trust and the next price shock
DNB’s June 2026 scenarios add a second layer. If oil and gas prices stay high or rise further, energy costs for companies and households increase. That feeds into transport, food and other products. DNB also says banks and investors may become more reluctant to finance new projects or may ask higher interest rates.
That is the sequence many small firms underestimate. Energy first hits the bill. Then it reaches supplier prices. Then it meets customer resistance. Later it can shape the bank conversation, especially when margins are thin and investment depends on optimistic payback periods.
There is also a quieter compliance question. CBS shows Russian-origin energy dependence was much lower in 2025 than in 2021, but not gone. Rijksoverheid reported that the EU’s 19th sanctions package included a ban on Russian LNG imports and measures against parties enabling Russian energy income. For most small firms this is not direct trading, but origin, supplier declarations and chain trust are becoming ordinary governance questions in energy-sensitive markets.
A calm response starts with the ledger. Separate the last twelve months of energy invoices into supply price, tax, grid charges, fixed fees and VAT. Then compare energy cost with turnover, staff hours, covers served, machine hours, deliveries or square metres. Renewal dates, variable-price clauses, lease terms and planned investments deserve the same attention.
The Netherlands has not simply replaced Russia with the United States. It has moved into an imported, capacity-constrained, mixed energy system. That system will not treat every small company equally. Some firms will shift hours, improve buildings or renegotiate contracts. Others will have less room and need to protect margin earlier.
The useful lesson is not panic about dependence. It is to stop treating energy as background noise. In the Dutch company of 2026, energy sits beside pricing, cash, contracts and investment timing. The bill is still a bill. But it now carries a map of risk.
Sources
- CBS source
- CBS – US imports as business inputs
- CBS – Gulf route shock and mineral fuel imports
- CBS – Renewable energy share and sector difference
- CBS – Electricity production, exports and fossil backup
- Rijksoverheid – End of Groningen gas extraction
- Rijksoverheid – Gas storage as supply-security buffer
- Rijksoverheid – Russian LNG and sanctions constraint
Referenced in the article
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Column | Market Pulse
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The Polder is written for readers who need the Dutch business environment translated into practical meaning. Corrections, source policy and editorial accountability are part of the publication record.
